Recently, the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) has attracted the attention of many investors. Considering the current market environment and potential changes in monetary policy, we can't help but wonder: how high can BTC reach during this rise cycle? How will it develop in the future? More importantly, is the opportunity window for ordinary investors to purchase a full BTC closing?

Currently, the BTC price is fluctuating around $118,000. If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in September this year, it will likely stimulate an upward trend in the cryptocurrency market. Looking back at history, we can see a close correlation between monetary policy and BTC prices: after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2020, BTC rose from $10,000 to $65,000, and then broke through to a high of $69,000 in 2021; during the pause in interest rate hikes in 2023, BTC also rose from $16,000 to $48,000.

Based on this historical data and current market dynamics, including expectations for the upcoming halving event, we can boldly speculate that the possibility of BTC reaching $200,000 in this bullish cycle cannot be ignored. At the current exchange rate, this is equivalent to approximately 1.4 million RMB.

However, investors also need to be vigilant about the cyclical nature of the market. The price movement of BTC has historically shown a clear cycle of rises and falls: after the bull market in 2017, it dropped from $20,000 to $3,200, a decline of 84%; in 2021, it fell from $69,000 to $16,000, a drop of 77%. Even if we take a relatively conservative estimate and assume a correction range of 50%-60%, then after this bull market, the bottom range of BTC may be between 560,000 to 700,000 yuan.

This periodic fluctuation reminds us that although BTC still has significant appreciation space, its high volatility also brings corresponding risks. For ordinary investors, the threshold for fully purchasing one BTC is indeed continuously increasing, which is both an opportunity and a challenge. When making investment decisions, it is essential to comprehensively consider one's risk tolerance and long-term investment strategy, rather than being swayed by short-term market emotions.

Overall, the future development of the BTC market is still full of uncertainties. Investors should remain rational while following potential gains and manage risks to cope with this rapidly changing market environment.