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Under the US debt crisis, Bitcoin is expected to become a new pillar for future international settlement.
The U.S. Debt Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin
As the scale of US national debt surpasses 36.4 trillion dollars, the resolution of the US debt crisis and the continuation of the dollar's international hegemony have become hot topics. This article will explore the US debt economic model, the risks faced by the internationalization of the dollar, and the role that Bitcoin may play in future international settlements.
Establishment of the US Debt Economic Model
After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar became a fiat currency, with its value guaranteed by the national credit of the United States. On this basis, the United States established a debt-based economic model: global trade is settled in US dollars, the United States maintains a trade deficit, and other countries obtain US dollars and purchase US Treasury bonds, resulting in the repatriation of dollars. This model has perpetuated the hegemony of the US dollar.
Risks Facing the Internationalization of the Dollar
The internationalization of the US dollar faces two major risks:
Contrary to the trend of manufacturing returning. The internationalization of the dollar requires maintaining a trade deficit, but promoting the return of manufacturing will reduce the deficit, leading to a shortage of dollars.
Commercial real estate debt crisis. After the pandemic, the demand for office space has declined, and American commercial real estate faces risks. $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is about to mature, which could trigger a financial crisis.
Analysis of US Debt Repayment Plans
Selling gold to repay US debt is not feasible and would cause a liquidity crisis in US debt. Repaying US debt with Bitcoin also has its issues: insufficient recognition, inadequate reserves, and controversies surrounding the establishment of reserves. Pegging the US dollar to Bitcoin is also unreasonable and could threaten the internationalization of the dollar. Manipulating Bitcoin to control the dollar is similarly unrealistic.
The Impact of Debt Crisis on International Settlement
If a US debt crisis breaks out, Bitcoin may fall in the short term, but it is expected to become the "Noah's Ark" in the long run. The scarcity and independence of Bitcoin make it likely to become an important pillar of the future international settlement system.
Can Bitcoin Become the Future International Currency
Bitcoin has the potential to become an international currency in terms of medium of exchange, measure of value, and store of value. Compared to other fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has the broadest consensus and recognition.
Although Bitcoin still faces challenges in becoming an international settlement currency, it has the corresponding potential. Future development will depend on the global economic situation and the choices of all parties.