The Thrilling Legislative Journey of the "Beautiful Act": A Prolonged Political Game

After a long and tense voting process, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the lengthy 869-page "Beautiful Act" by a narrow margin of 218 votes to 214. This bill has sparked intense disputes between the two parties and even affected relationships between some well-known figures. It is reported that Trump will sign the bill at 5 am Beijing time on the 5th, marking the official launch of this controversial "financial experiment."

The difficult journey of the bill

The legislative process of the "Beautiful America Act" was full of twists and turns. In mid-May, Republican lawmakers initiated the legislative process using the "budget reconciliation procedure" in an attempt to bypass the Senate's 60-vote threshold. On May 22, the House of Representatives narrowly passed the bill for the first time by a vote of 215 to 214. At that time, Republican Speaker Johnson made several amendments before the vote to meet the demands of some Republican representatives.

On June 4th, a well-known entrepreneur publicly opposed the bill, calling it "disgusting," and began privately lobbying Republican lawmakers in an attempt to prevent the president from signing it. This move further complicated the legislative game and brought more public attention to the bill.

In the Senate phase, the battle between offense and defense became increasingly intense. On June 29, the clerk read aloud a 940-page bill text overnight, taking about 16 hours, a rare scene in Washington politics. On July 1, after the Vice President cast the crucial vote, the bill passed the Senate final version with 51 votes.

On July 3, the House of Representatives voted again on the Senate version, passing it with the same margin of 218 votes to 214. During this time, Democratic leader Jeffries delayed the proceedings with a solo speech lasting 8 hours and 46 minutes, setting a record for the longest speech in the House.

Throughout the process, Trump was heavily involved, making multiple calls to lawmakers, publicly pressuring on social media, and criticizing opponents for "making a big mistake."

The impact of the bill: winners and losers

The final version of the "Beautiful Big Law" is complex, with core provisions focusing on large-scale tax cuts and significant reductions in social welfare spending. Multiple polls show that the American public generally holds a reserved attitude towards the bill.

Beneficiaries: High-income groups, large enterprises, and traditional energy industries

The bill makes the individual and corporate tax cuts implemented in 2017 permanent and further expands tax reductions for capital gains, estate taxes, corporate R&D expenses, and shareholder dividends. According to data disclosed by a senator, the bill provides $975 billion in tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans, $211 billion in estate tax exemptions for the wealthiest 0.2% of Americans, and $918 billion in tax breaks for large corporations.

In addition, the traditional fossil fuel industry receives substantial subsidies, while incentives for clean energy sources such as electric vehicles and solar power have been significantly reduced.

Affected groups: low-income population, younger generation

The bill reduces government spending by more than $1 trillion, primarily affecting Medicaid and food assistance programs. New coverage thresholds, work requirements, and changes to funding mechanisms are expected to result in more than 12 million people losing their health insurance eligibility within 10 years.

According to estimates by the CBO, U.S. debt is projected to increase by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to legislation. This means the government will have to borrow more to fill the budget gap, with additional interest expenses expected to reach $600 billion to $700 billion. This heavy interest burden will ultimately be passed on to future generations, squeezing the investments and benefits of the younger generation in critical areas such as education and housing.

Industry insiders' views on the crypto market

Although the "Beautiful Act" does not directly involve cryptocurrencies, industry insiders generally believe it is good news for the crypto market.

An industry KOL pointed out that the United States will significantly increase its fiscal deficit every year, and the scale of U.S. national debt will continue to rise, which is undoubtedly a major positive for Bitcoin. At the same time, this controversial bill has passed smoothly, demonstrating the government's strong control in Congress, which is beneficial for the future passage of crypto policies.

The co-founder of a certain cryptocurrency investment firm predicts that with the passage of the "Beautiful Big Law", combined with the traditional active market season of the fourth quarter and a possible interest rate cut environment, Bitcoin and related crypto stocks are very likely to reach new highs. However, the performance of mid-cap cryptocurrencies may be relatively lackluster.

Another crypto KOL analyzed that while the bill does not directly benefit the crypto industry, it reflects the internal de-globalization fiscal expansion in the United States, the drastic restructuring of global capital flows, which indirectly will help promote liquidity for cryptocurrencies, especially the remittance tax will directly drive the increase in the market value of stablecoins.

However, there are also different voices. The founder of a certain trading platform believes that if Trump's "Big and Beautiful Plan" is passed, the replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) may lead to a tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity, causing Bitcoin to potentially fall back to between $90,000 and $95,000; if the replenishment goes smoothly, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate within the $100,000 range, with difficulty breaking through the historical high of $112,000 in the short term. In addition, he anticipates that before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the end of August, the market may consolidate or decline slightly, and after liquidity is restored in early September, Bitcoin may experience an increase.

It is worth noting that as the "Beautiful Act" is implemented, cryptocurrency legislation is also entering an accelerated phase. The Republican leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives has announced that the week of July 14 will be "Cryptocurrency Week," during which three important digital currency-related bills will be reviewed. These bills include the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act," the "CLARITY Act," and a proposal to restrict the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency.

With the advancement of these policies, the future direction of the cryptocurrency market is worth continuous attention.

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