BTC Price Prediction: Bitcoin Breaks Through $120,000 Mark, Bitwise Reaffirms $200,000 Target

"In December of last year, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of the year. I still believe this prediction is achievable." Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan doubled down on this bold prediction in April of this year amid escalating global trade tensions.

On this day four months later, August 4, 2025, Bitcoin has made a strong breakthrough past the key psychological level of $120,000 after a brief consolidation, reaching a level of $121,500 at one point during trading. This price movement occurred after the correction following Bitcoin's historical peak of $123,000 on July 14, and the market is regrouping to challenge higher targets.

##Breaking Moment: Bitcoin Breaks 120,000 USD Milestone

According to Gate's market data, as of August 4th Beijing time, the trading price of Bitcoin is reported at $115,000, with a daily increase of 2.7%, currently still near a key resistance level.

This breakthrough is not an isolated event. Looking back to mid-July, Bitcoin historically broke through the $120,000 mark, reaching a high of $123,000.

Unlike the previous pattern of sharp rises and falls, this time the increase shows a stable and mature trend. Institutional investors continue to buy through the spot ETF channel, forming a "stable and patient purchasing" force.

A large-scale short liquidation accompanied the breakthrough of 120,000 USD, with over 100 million USD in short positions being forcibly closed, highlighting a structural shift in market sentiment.

Bitwise's $200,000 Declaration: The Power of Supply and Demand Imbalance

Bitwise's $200,000 prediction is based on a rigorous supply-demand model. Investment chief Matt Hougan pointed out that the new supply of Bitcoin in 2024 is only about 165,000 coins, while institutions have already purchased more in a single quarter through ETFs than the annual output.

Macroeconomic policy has become a catalyst. The Trump administration's global tariff policy is undermining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, with White House economic advisors even openly criticizing the dollar's reserve status for causing "persistent monetary distortions" and "unsustainable trade deficits."

Hougan revealed the inverse relationship between the US dollar and Bitcoin: "A drop in the US dollar equals a rise in Bitcoin." Since the beginning of 2025, the US dollar index DXY has fallen by more than 7%, while Bitcoin has risen by more than 30% during the same period.

Bitwise clearly stated in its official forecast that Bitcoin will trade above $200,000 in 2025, and in the long term, by 2029, Bitcoin's market cap will challenge the $18 trillion gold market.

August Trends: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

At the beginning of August, Bitcoin was trading around $115,000, with a monthly increase of 9%. After breaking through $120,000, the market focus shifted to the next key resistance level of $125,000.

Major analytical institutions have provided positive forecasts:

• CoinCodex expects a 12.5% increase in August, pushing the price to reach $133,300 before August 28.
• Wallet Investor sets a higher target of 129,490 USD
• DigitalCoinPrice predicts a moderate increase of 1.24% to around 119,860 USD before mid-month.

Technical indicators are also sending positive signals. The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin reached 2.2 on July 31, close to the 365-day average, and this setup has often triggered significant rebounds in the past.

Futures market data shows a healthy trend. Although prices are nearing a peak, the "volume bubble chart indicates that it has moved away from the overheating zone," suggesting "a more natural, lower-leverage buying."

August Miracle: Historical Implications of the Halving Cycle

Historical data adds expectations for the August market. In every August following a Bitcoin halving year, the market has shown significant increases:

• August 2013: +30%
• August 2017: +65%
• August 2021: +13%

If history repeats itself, based on the current $121,500, a conservative 13% increase would push it to $137,000, while a 30% increase would challenge $158,000, and an extreme case of 65% even points to the $200,000 region.

BitBull Capital analysts specifically pointed out the possibility of a $150,000 target, based on: continuous fund inflows into ETFs, increased scarcity caused by holders' reluctance to sell, sovereign funds quietly entering the market, and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

Macro Battlefield: Policies and Global Capital Flows

In August, the market faces multiple macro events for testing. The U.S. Congress will welcome "Cryptocurrency Week," and high-risk debates surrounding regulatory frameworks may trigger volatility.

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the meeting on July 30, providing a relatively stable environment for cryptocurrencies.

However, the new import tariffs announced by Trump in early August once triggered a global market shock, indicating that trade policy remains a short-term risk factor.

Deep capital flows are more worthy of attention. Bitwise observed that the Coinbase premium index has turned negative for the first time, indicating that U.S. institutional demand is temporarily lagging behind international buyers, but it also suggests that holders are more inclined to hold rather than sell.

##Future Outlook

As Bitcoin broke through $120,000 in July, traders have set their sights on the key resistance level of $125,000. A breakthrough at this level could open the way to $140,000.

When White House economic advisers question the dollar's reserve status, and countries settle oil transactions with Bitcoin, we are witnessing not just price fluctuations, but a paradigm shift in the global value storage system.

The market in August will test the power of historical patterns. In the August following the halving, Bitcoin has never disappointed investors—+30% in 2013, +65% in 2017, and +13% in 2021. This time, the entry of institutional and sovereign capital may overshadow historical performance.